Beijing, October 18

China’s GDP grew 4.9% in the third quarter, up from 7.9% in the second, confirming the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy which was under pressure from the crumbling real estate sector, energy restrictions and the recovery. late outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Early to recover from the coronavirus pandemic, the Chinese economy in the first months of this year experienced an impressive recovery, but was caught by many headwinds, including a collapse in the real estate sector, a crisis in the electricity, an increasingly weak consumer sentiment and soaring raw material costs.

Its gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter (Q3) grew 4.9% year-on-year, slower than growth of 18.3% in the first quarter and 7.9% in the second quarter. Q3 denied polls predicting 5% growth.

Releasing the third quarter data, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) spokesman Fu Linghui said consumption contributed about 64.8% to China’s economic growth in the first three quarters of the year.

“We must note that the current uncertainties in the international environment are increasing and the national economic recovery is still unstable and uneven,” Fu said.

“The national economy as a whole has maintained the momentum of recovery during the first three quarters … however, we must note that the current uncertainties in the international environment are increasing and the national economic recovery is still unstable and uneven,” said declared the Hong Kong South China. Morning quoted Fu as saying.

According to official data, retail sales of consumer goods in China grew 16.4 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year.

The country’s retail sales of consumer goods totaled about 31.8 trillion yuan (about $ 4.9 trillion) between January and September, according to the data.

China’s value-added industrial production grew 11.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while investment in fixed assets rose 7.3% year-on-year during the period.

The country’s registered urban unemployment rate stood at 4.9 percent in September, down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year.

During the January-September period, China created 10.45 million new urban jobs in the first three quarters, reaching 95% of the target for the whole year, according to NBS data.

Acknowledging the downward trend in the economy, the state-run Global Times, in its third quarter data report, said China’s economic slowdown in the third quarter was not only due to an effect baseline lower than last year, when the coronavirus pandemic was largely under control across the country, but also amid a series of economic challenges China is currently facing, such as the electricity crisis and supply chain issues.

Already, a number of international financial institutions have reduced Chinese GDP growth in the third quarter.

Standard Chartered Bank lowered its forecast for China’s third-quarter GDP from 6% to 5% based on factors such as flooding and the lingering effect of regulatory tightening.

Goldman Sachs forecast China’s fourth-quarter GDP to grow 3.2% year-over-year, down from a previous forecast of 4.1%.

The Global Times quoted the Moody’s rating agency as saying that China’s power cuts will exacerbate the country’s economic stress and weigh on its GDP growth for 2022.

He said his risks to GDP forecasts could be greater due to disruptions in production and supply chains.

Wu Chaoming, chief economist at Chasing Securities, told the Global Times that China’s third-quarter GDP growth was held back in part by the resurgence of the coronavirus in several Chinese provinces, and in part by rising prices. Bulk raw material prices and electricity supply restrictions, which had a direct negative impact on the profitability of downstream industrial enterprises.

He pointed out that the 4.9% GDP growth is still close to the potential growth rate of 5.5-6.0%, which means that the country’s economic growth is still within a normal range.

Experts also said that China’s fourth-quarter GDP growth will come under additional pressure, which could further dampen China’s GDP growth for the whole of 2021.

According to Wu, the biggest challenge now comes from the investment sector, as market expectations for the real estate market tend to drop due to the tightening of mortgage lending requirements from banks as well as the debt crisis of Evergrande.

Evergrande, China’s largest real estate company, has sparked a major crisis in recent weeks as it began to default on installments of its $ 309 billion debt.

In addition, several Chinese provinces have reported an acute energy crisis due to a coal shortage. PTI