POLL-New yuan loans from China increased in September
Reuters: // realtime / verb = Open / url = cpurl: //apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls? RIC = CNMSM2% 3DECI money supply survey data
Reuters: // realtime / verb = Open / url = cpurl: //apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls? RIC = CNNYL% 3DECI survey data on new loans
Seven new loans at 1.7 trillion yuan from 1.28 trillion yuan in August
Money supply growth in September at 10.4% year-on-year, compared to 10.4% in August
September TSF seen at 3.15 trillion yuan from 3.58 trillion yuan in August
Loans, money supply data from October 10 to 15
BEIJING, October 9 (Reuters) – Chinese banks are expected to have stepped up lending in September, although other forms of credit growth are likely to be stable, with Beijing pledging to take a targeted approach to monetary policy as the economy emerges from the coronavirus crisis.
Lenders likely granted 1.7 trillion yuan ($ 253.28 billion) in new net loans in yuan last month, up from 1.28 trillion yuan in August, according to the median estimate of a Reuters poll. of 15 analysts.
The forecast would be broadly in line with the 1.69 trillion yuan seen a year earlier.
The growth of the broad money supply M2 in September was 10.4%, matching the pace of the previous month.
Annual yuan loans are expected to increase 12.9% in September, slightly less than the 13% gain recorded in August.
As China’s central bank stepped up support earlier this year in response to the coronavirus pandemic, it more recently suspended easing as the economy continues to recover.
“We expect credit growth to remain broadly stable in September, as Beijing appears to maintain its wait-and-see approach in recent months by neither easing nor tightening further,” Nomura analysts said in a research note.
Recent economic data has shown that the world’s second-largest economy has steadily recovered from a virus-induced crisis, but analysts say policymakers face a difficult job to maintain stable expansion over the next few years.
China kept its key rate for loans to businesses and households stable for the fifth consecutive month at its September fixing, as expected.
In September, total social financing (TSF), a broader measure of credit and liquidity, is expected to decline slightly to 3.15 trillion yuan, from 3.58 trillion yuan in August.
Morgan Stanley analysts expected that figure to be mainly due to the strengthening of government bond funding. Chinese local governments have been urged to complete the issuance of special bonds by the end of October.
They also noted that the recent tightening of financing policy for real estate developers may have offset improved demand for loans from consumers and exporters.
Chinese regulators have since August tightened their control over real estate developers in an attempt to combat unbridled borrowing in the sector in order to reduce the risk of indebtedness.
Chinese leaders are set to approve a lower economic growth target for Beijing’s next five-year plan, Reuters reported last week citing sources, as authorities navigate a deepening rift with states -United.
($ 1 = 6.7119 Chinese yuan)
(Reporting by Lusha Zhang and Ryan Woo; Editing by Sam Holmes)
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