After a two-year decline in the number of pilgrims visiting Islam’s holiest sites, this year’s Hajj saw near pre-pandemic levels of worshipers from around the world.

In 2020, only 1,000 pilgrims performed the Hajj, in stark contrast to nearly 2.5 million pilgrims in 2019. This year, 1 million permits were issued, reflecting a gradual return to the status quo.

However, with more than 1.8 billion Muslims worldwide seeking to make the pilgrimage at least once in their lifetime, the age-old question of how to welcome pilgrims from around the world is more pressing than ever.

Virtually many won’t be able to find a niche, even if they can afford the increasingly expensive trip. A 1988 decision by the Organization of Islamic Cooperation on Hajj quotas imposes a minimum ratio of 1,000 pilgrims per million total (Muslim) population, or 0.01%.

Even at pre-pandemic capacity levels, it would take at least 500 pilgrimages to fully meet the Hajj needs of the current global Muslim population, excluding future generations.

“Quotas, waiting lists and lotteries will continue to be necessary for Hajj. This is one of the reasons why a lot of the focus of Vision 2030 is actually on year-round Umrah,” shares Dr. Sean McLoughlin, professor of anthropology of Islam at the University of Leeds who spoke with TRT World.

Saudi Vision 2030 is a strategic framework launched in April 2016 to alleviate dependence on oil, improve infrastructure and diversify economic flows.

Umrah is an Islamic pilgrimage that can be performed at any time of the year, unlike Hajj which adheres to specific dates in the lunar calendar.

Although not a religious obligation, Umrah can be completed in half a day, making it ideal not only to meet the worldwide demand to visit the holy mosques of Mecca and Medina. , but also to stimulate wider tourism.

Umrah caters to a broader religious tourism market in terms of affordability and access without competitive lotteries or quotas.

“In 2019, the number of Umrah reached 20 million, with Saudi Arabia launching a new electronic tourist visa the same year,” notes Dr McLoughlin.

While the pilgrimage represents a major and constant source of income for the Kingdom, it also poses a unique challenge in organizing, scaling and hosting one of the largest gatherings in the world.

Saudi Arabia’s commitment to increase to 6 million pilgrims by the end of the decade is an ambitious milestone of Vision 2030. In 2019, the Kingdom welcomed at least 2.5 million pilgrims without incident.

Accommodating more than twice as many pilgrims would require significant investment in hospitality, mosque expansion, facilities, organization, health care and even airports; the current infrastructure being the result of decades of successive development.

Economic imperatives

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, the Hajj economy was expected to reach $150 billion in 2022 alone.

Saudi economists believe spending on the pilgrimage could one day support the kingdom’s entire economy.

“The economic importance of religious tourism in Saudi Arabia – and in particular the Hajj – is that it is a religious duty for all Muslims who are financially and physically able to undertake it. So there will always be a demand of religious tourism in Saudi Arabia, as well as the possibility of creating spillovers in Mecca and nearby holy sites,” says Dr. Robert Mogielnicki, senior research fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, when interviewed by TRT World.

The pilgrimage accounts for nearly 20% of Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP and is expected to grow with the completion of several high-end hotels.

The latest expansion project for the Holy Mosque was launched in 2015, with a $21 billion effort aimed at increasing pilgrimage capacity by 300,000.

“I think the greatest economic gains in this area will come if Saudi Arabia is successful in marketing a changing tourism landscape to religious tourists. There are many opportunities for trip extensions, add-ons or follow-up tours , particularly if they want to continue to attract non-oil revenue and recycle it more efficiently across the country,” adds Dr. Mogielnick.

“They have work to do, but some of the finer details still need to be ironed out,” he concludes.

Despite steady projected growth, Hajj planners still have to deal with an increasing number of Hajj-goers commensurate with a growing global Muslim population, as well as economic pressure due to the pandemic.

A 2017 Pew report predicted that the number of Muslims worldwide is expected to increase by 70% over the next few decades, reaching around 3 billion by 2060.

In 2020, at the height of the pandemic, Saudi Arabia tripled its value-added tax, raising fears it could impact the affordability of Hajj. In 2022, the costs of Hajj have seen increases varying from 10 to 50%.

“Prices are impacted by exchange rates, international currency transactions, supply and demand in terms of airline and hotel capacity, as well as the demolition of cheaper accommodation near the Haram and new taxes, not to mention the commercialization of Hajj services and an end to subsidies in Saudi Arabia itself,” says Dr McLoughlin.

With $12 billion in revenue per year, Saudi Arabia’s Hajj economy will go a long way towards reversing a budget deficit since oil prices plummeted in 2014. For the first time since 2013, the Kingdom is expected to achieve a GDP surplus of nearly of 24 billion dollars in 2022. .

Saudi Arabia traditionally bestows the title of “custodian of the holy mosques” on its monarchs, which involves serving and hosting the needs of pilgrims, security and the sanctity of Islam’s holiest sites.

In the future

Technology has also played a crucial role in scaling and improving Hajj. In 2020, two Saudi researchers filed a patent to generate and store electricity collected by walking pilgrims. In 2021, the Hajj saw disinfectant robots and app-based schedules to avoid crowding.

The UK’s Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority (SDAIA) has also seen a limited rollout of 5,000 smartbands for pilgrims tracking Covid-19 exposure, heart rate and blood oxygen with a service contact built-in emergency. In March 2022, a beta electronic bracelet was introduced to find children separated from their families.

Although these technologies have not yet been implemented on a large scale, they offer an indication of ongoing future capabilities that could be used to better organize the Hajj and improve its experience for pilgrims.

A stop

International pilgrims faced obstacles in their plans to perform Hajj after the introduction of Motawif, a government portal released a month before Hajj in June 2022, offering a one-stop Hajj booking including hotels, tickets plane, visas and payments to more than 50 countries.

The system has come under scrutiny after users reported errors, reservationless payments and missing refunds.

But Mcloughlin says Muslim minorities and diasporas in Western countries have benefited from being generally exempt from the 1988 OIC national quota rule of 1,000 pilgrims per million total (Muslim) population.

To some extent, they were able to perform the Hajj more or less on demand, unlike in Muslim-majority countries where pilgrims are used to long waiting lists and lotteries, he adds.

It remains to be seen, however, whether the most recent challenges for pilgrims through the newly introduced one-stop Motawif system are limited to technical difficulties or indicate a broader policy.

“One of the benefits of Saudi Arabia’s decision to centralize Hajj governance could be to simplify the previous reliance on complex systems of regulations in pilgrims’ home countries and in Saudi Arabia,” he concludes. .

Citing growing global demand for Hajj amid a growing Muslim population, he predicts “new opportunities for mobility, investment in new infrastructure and technology”.

The promise of opportunity, however, sheds light on the future sustainability of Hajj.

These include “long-standing questions about future sustainability in terms of overall numbers and limited physical capacity of space, health and safety, consumption and rising prices, as well as concern for tangible and intangible heritage, as well as the impact of all of this on the religious experiences of Hajj pilgrims,” concludes Dr McLoughlin.

Source: World TRT