Fantasy Baseball Picks: Best DraftKings MLB DFS Goals, September 4th Values
Saturday features a main roster of eight MLB games and action on DraftKings begins at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s go position by position and break down everything you will need to know to define your alignments.
Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers ($ 10,200) – Third baseman Max Schrock pitched the ninth inning for the Reds last night, so their field is in desperate need of a day off. Mahle will go as far as he can against a Tigers offense that likely exhausted his number of hits and runs for the week on Friday night. Great American Ball Park assists attacks via the home run – which are not batted balls in play – so the Tigers’ .419 BABIP last night is an anomaly and normal Tigers are expected to enter the field tonight – 88 wRC +, .300 wOBA, .159 ISO and a K rate of 26% against right handed pitch. Mahle has been outstanding with an xFIP of 3.72 and a K rate of 28% and should have no issues with this range.
Other option: Framber Valdez ($ 10,000)
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds ($ 5,800) – This is a game of leverage against the tide. Cincinnati at home against the Tigers should be a popular stacking option. The problem with Cincinnati is that they are terrible against left handed pitchers. Still, DFS players can’t help themselves – they’ll stack Reds bats at Great American Ball Park against a mediocre pitcher every time – it’s the right move and statistically it will work the most often. However, there is an opportunity to save a lot of money and skip a bunch of lineups, if the Reds continue to struggle with left-handed pitch – 74 wRC +, .286 wOBA, .140 ISO and a rate of 25, 6% K. Boyd’s flying ball rate (42%) might be a problem, but he was better than the league average at keeping the ball in the park (9% RH / FB rate). Plus, Cincinnati hits a lot against left-handed pitchers and Boyd has an above-average chase rate and first pitch hit rate.
Other option: Kolby Allard ($ 5,000)
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox To Kansas City Royals ($ 5,400) – Since returning from the IL six games ago, Grandal has had four homers and nine hits. In 42 batting appearances against a left-handed pitcher, he has a wOBA of .480, .357 ISO, 213 wRC + and a hard contact rate of 39%. Daniel Lynch ($ 5,400) struggled with right-handed hitters to the tune of .365 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate with a 37% fly ball rate.
Other option: Tyler Stephenson ($ 4,800)
José Trevino, Texas Rangers To Los Angeles Angels ($ 2,400) – In his last 10 games, Trevino has a wOBA of .378 and an ISO of .184. José Suarez ($ 6,500) as a starter, he has a 4.71 xFIP and 5.53 ERA in nine games, and against right-handed hitters, his xFIP increases to 4.93.
Other option: Travis d’Arnaud ($ 3,700)
José Abreu, Chicago White Sox at the Kansas City Royals ($ 5,200) – Against left-handed pitching, Abreu has a wOBA of .390, .325 ISO, 152 wRC + and a hard contact rate of 36%. Daniel Lynch has a 5.11 xFIP against right-handed batters in 41 innings. His .364 BABIP might regress a bit towards the average, but not much based on his poor pitch metrics.
Other option: Joey Votto ($ 4,900)
Brandon Belt, Giants of San Francisco vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($ 4,100) – A left-to-left match is never the best idea, but there are some interesting divisions with these two. In a limited sample (47 batters), the belt was locked on left-handers – .417 wOBA, .277 ISO and a 165 wRC +. Julio Urias ($ 9,700) was strong against left-handed bats, but it allows 1.8 HR / 9 and a fly ball rate of 47%.
Other option: Darin Ruf ($ 3,100)
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Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves To Colorado Rockies ($ 5,000) – He has an ISO of .202 compared to the right handed pitcher and he plays at Coors Field. Germán Marquez ($ 8,100) was a good pitcher at home, but not good enough to be avoided. Even if Albies doesn’t work against Marquez, he’ll get some great opportunities against a terrible Rocky Mountain enclosure – 4.61 xFIP, 1.3 HR / 9, 37% fly ball rate and a strand rate of 69%.
Other option: Trea Truner ($ 5,100)
Cèsar Hernández, Chicago White Sox at the Kansas City Royals ($ 3,600) – Against left-handed pitch, Hernández has a .329 wOBA, .273 ISO, 107 wRC + and a hard contact rate of 39%. Daniel Lynch has had three strong starts in a row – earned three out of 16 2??3 rounds – and a stack of White Sox may not work, but a single value set may work.
Other option: Jonathan India ($ 4,500)
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves to Colorado Rockies ($ 5,500) – The Braves barely miss Ronald Acuna with the way Austin Riley swings the bat. It has a .410 wOBA, .258 ISO, 157 wRC + and a 37% hard contact rate against right handed pitch. In the first two games of this series at Colorado, Riley had four hits (two doubles) and three RBIs.
Other option: Kyle Seager ($ 4,700)
Eugenio Suárez, Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers ($ 4,100) – There were 20 points scored at the Great American Ball Park last night. Neither of the team’s starters made it out of the fourth set. Boyd can easily fail in this game, as can the Detroit reliever box. Suárez is having a terrible season and it could be the start of his decline, but he has a hard 46% contact rate against left-handed pitchers and he’s scored in each of his last two starts.
Other option: Justin Turner ($ 4,400)
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves ($ 5,800) – It hasn’t been the best season for Story and he’s not going anywhere with the Rocky Mountain cave, but the past week has been pretty good for him personally. He’s had a wOBA of .466 and ISO of .348 since Aug. 29 and he’ll be looking to add to those numbers on Saturday night at Coors Field. Ian Anderson ($ 7,000) will take the mound for the Braves a departure removed from the IL. During this start, he did not allow any point out of 5 2??3 but he had a BABIP of .200 with zero strikeouts (5.78 xFIP). The results looked good, but it could have been a lot worse. Such a high xFIP is usually a problem in Colorado.
Other option: Dansby Swanson ($ 5,100)
Nicky Lopez, Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox ($ 3,700) – Before going without a hit in his last two games, Lopez was hot. He had hits in 15 of 18 games with a wOBA of .409. In 15 innings against left-handed hitters, Reynaldo Lopez ($ 6,300) has an xFIP of 4.99.
Other option: Kyle Farmer ($ 3,300)
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle sailors ($ 5,400) – He’s only played 66 games this season, but they’ve been good – .513 wOBA, .347 ISO, 223 wRC +, 46% hard contact rate and 12% K against a left-handed pitcher. Sort of Marco Gonzales ($ 9,300) is one of the more expensive launchers on slate despite allowing a rate of 0.362 wOBA, .262 ISO, 2.0 HR / 9, 18% K and a flying ball rate of 50% at right-handed hitters. DraftKings has no faith in the Arizona offensive.
Other option: Nick Castellanos ($ 5,100)
Aristides Aquino, Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers ($ 3,100) – Playing Boyd is probably a bridge too far. The smart move is to charge the Reds ‘bats, and even lefties, as the Detroit relievers’ pen will likely make an early appearance. Aquino has an ISO .233 compared to the left-handed pitcher and he’s a significantly better hitter in Cincinnati – .369 wOBA and an ISO .275.
Other option: Adam Duvall ($ 4,100)
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