Cowboys, Chargers among the best expert games; Packers, chefs present risks
Another week where the most popular choice became a big favorite. This time it was Arizona that lost in Detroit. A team fighting for the No.1 seed was beaten by a team playing for the first pick in the draft.
Another week in the NFL.
I liked Arizona as the best game last week and still would given what we knew. Holding them for that long to lose to Detroit is a difficult task if you stick to that decision.
Planning has become somewhat of an unsuccessful endeavor in the survivor pools. The normal chaos of an NFL season is hard to predict. Now, with large chunks of game lists missing due to COVID protocols, it’s even more difficult.
It’s a holiday weekend, but staying on top of the news before making your final selection is essential.
Choice of NFL survivor pool
Assuming there is no postponement, there are three games this week before Sunday. There is the regular game on Thursday night and two games on Saturday.
The good news is, I don’t particularly like any of these teams as survivors. So you may be able to postpone decisions until Sunday morning.
What are my favorite pieces this week? Let’s find out. Here are the projected winning percentages for the last three weeks of the season:
Here are the top options this week along with the key stats to know.
The Chargers are expected to be the most popular pick this week at 25%. They take to the road to face a Texan team that doesn’t have much to play.
It looks suspiciously similar to the situation Arizona experienced last week. However, the two games have nothing to do with it and the Chargers still have a positive expected value this week.
However, there are four other teams with a higher expected value this week. Chiefs are among them right now, although they have the most question marks surrounding them due to COVID protocols.
The Cowboys are a great game this week as only 4% of entries take them and they have the second highest probability of winning on the table.
The Eagles are also a viable game this week against the Giants. This is their best chance of winning in the next three games, unless the Cowboys rest their starters in Week 18.
The Buccaneers and Packers are both teams with Super Bowl aspirations, but teams that I would avoid this week in the survivor pools.
With the Buccaneers, I’d much rather wait another week until they face the Jets and pick someone else this week.
It’s a lot riskier to let the Packers down because they could rest against Detroit in the final game, but my simulations like the Browns’ chances at Green Bay more than the market.
If you are looking for a really quirky team, let me introduce you to the Denver Broncos. They’re on the road in Las Vegas, but my model has been high on them most of the year and still loves them with or without Teddy Bridgewater.
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington Football Team)
Dallas is the best choice this week. The Cowboys are lightly owned and I don’t want to use them in any of their last two games.
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